tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20909790.post114424633380133942..comments2024-01-20T19:06:18.542+08:00Comments on Hokum-Balderdash Assay: Beating Monty Hallerebusnyxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11988464368427565221noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20909790.post-1144253113855168112006-04-06T00:05:00.000+08:002006-04-06T00:05:00.000+08:00Ashutosh Joshi's "extension" is merely a mundane e...Ashutosh Joshi's "extension" is merely a mundane example of failing to incorporate Bayesian posteriors.<BR/><BR/>I think what probably confuses people here is the false assumption that Monty Hall is somehow a random actor in the spirit of a roulette wheel. He is not.<BR/><BR/>Regardless of whether there are three doors, 1000, or n, and regardless of which door you initially choose, he will consciously collapse the game in such a way as to present you with a 50-50 chance at the end. QED.KipEsquirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02326513032807027956noreply@blogger.com