I was wrong ... but still I was right

Just got wind of this via Unscrewing the Inscrutable. Here's the latest failed prophecy - cognitive dissonance case. Back in 2004 a lady by the name of Shelby Corbitt published a book simply entitled 2007. It details a prophecy she allegedly received via a dream back in 1986. According to that revelation the Rapture was to occur in September 2007.

It's 2008. Yep, it was a dud. And Shelby knows all too well. In her website, in huge type, she writes:

I SAID :

THE RAPTURE OF THE CHURCH IS GOING TO HAPPEN, THIS YEAR
2007!!

I WAS WRONG!!!

Just to head off any possible misunderstanding, cognitive dissonance does not mean denial of the situation. One precisely experiences dissonance because one is unable to deny the disconfirming evidence. In this particular case Shelby very much knows and acknowledges that the Rapture did not occur in 2007 as she predicted. The dissonance stems from the fact that she believes she got a prophecy from her deity and from the undeniable fact that it did not come to pass.

Now Shelby can reduce the dissonance by either admitting she did not receive a prophecy--that she was mistaken in interpreting it as such--or she can stick to her belief that she had received a revelation and churn out hypotheses to explain away the failed prophecy.

Her admission of error is laudable. But what in fact is she admitting? That she was wrong in interpreting the dream as a prophecy? The following statements from Shelby tell us that she merely is stating an incontrovertible fact--that the Rapture did not take place as predicted. But she still believes she had been given a prophecy.

I STILL BELIEVE THE PROPHETIC DREAM I HAD WAS FROM GOD. I HAVE TOLD THE DREAM JUST AS GOD GAVE IT TO ME. THE ONLY THING I CAN THINK OF IS THAT I RELEASED THE DREAM AT THE WRONG TIME AND GOT THE BOOK PUBLISHED TOO EARLY. MAYBE THE DREAM HAD SOME KIND OF SYMBOLIC MEANING INSTEAD OF A LITERAL MEANING THAT I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIGURE OUT YET. I STILL DO NOT KNOW WHAT I HAVE DONE WRONG AND WHY THE PROPHECY FAILED. I PROMISE ALL OF YOU THAT I DID NOT INTENTIONALLY MEAN TO HURT OR MISLEAD ANYBODY. I PROMISE I DID NOT MAKE UP THE DREAM. I KNOW MANY OF YOU ARE VERY DISAPPOINTED, BUT I ASSURE YOU NO ONE IS AS DISAPPOINTED AS I AM. PLEASE FORGIVE ME IF I HAVE SHAKENED ANYONE'S FAITH WITH THIS PROPHECY. I KNEW I WAS GOING TO GET MUCH OPPOSITION TO THE PROPHECY SO I WAS PREPARED FOR IT AND WAS DETERMINED NO ONE WOULD CHANGE MY MIND. THE CRITICISM REALLY DID NOT BOTHER ME ANY. I STILL BELIEVE IN A RAPTURE OF THE CHILDREN OF GOD BEFORE THE TRIBULATION BEGINS. I STILL BELIEVE IT HAS TO BE SOON BECAUSE OF ALL THE WARS AND FIGHTING AROUND THE WORLD AND THE HATEFULLNESS AGAINST ISRAEL, GOD'S CHOSEN PEOPLE!! I STILL BELIEVE THE RAPTURE OF THE CHURCH WILL BE IN MY LIFETIME AND IT WILL HAPPEN THE WAY GOD SHOWED ME IN THE DREAM. I STILL BELIEVE GOD WILL SEND A VERBAL VOICE TO WARN THE NATION BEFORE HE COMES BACK. MY TIMING WAS WRONG AND FOR THAT I DO APOLOGIZE. I SHOULD NOT HAVE RELEASED THE PROPHECY WHEN I DID.

(Her use of all caps is quite disturbing. When I see all caps I see crank.)

You can clearly see that even with total failure of the prophecy she does not for a moment doubt that she had a revelation from some supernatural entity. Her core belief is untouched. What she has done is to offer a host of rationalizations (wrong timing, symbolic instead of literal meanings, etc.). The one thing she won't consider is that the dream was simply a dream and nothing more. What she won't entertain is that she's been under the spell of a delusion for the past 21 years.

Back in the 1950s psychologist Leon Festinger infiltrated and studied a group of believers led by a Marian Keech. This group believed that the world was about to end. But for those who were part of their group a spaceship would arrive and fly them off to safety. In anticipation of this event, the die-hard believers among them quit their jobs and sold their property. When the appointed time came and went and no destruction occurred and no aliens arrived, what do you think Mrs. Keech and her group did? Abandon their belief in doomsday and aliens altogether and admitted delusion? As dissonance theory predicts, they kept their core belief intact and rationalized away the failed prophecy. After mulling the situation for a few moments Mrs. Keech came out saying that she had received a new vision: that because of the faith of their small band of believers, the end of world had been averted. Hallelujah, their group had saved the world! Reinvigorated, her followers went out to the streets and proselytized with a renewed zeal. [Mistakes Were Made, p. 12-13]

According to Shelby "I STILL DO NOT KNOW WHAT I HAVE DONE WRONG AND WHY THE PROPHECY FAILED." Oh, don't worry Shelby, you'll think of something. Dissonance theory prophesies just that. You've been at it for 21 years and made your prediction public via your book and website. You're just too heavily invested to quit. You're not going to admit delusion anytime soon. Probably not in your lifetime.